By P. Gunasegaram
Going into the next elections, the major game changer among single parties is not PKR, Umno or Bersatu but PAS which has captured the Malay votes and seems all set to consolidate even more.
While Bersatu and Muhyiddin Yassin are attempting to hold on to the premiership if it comes to that, it is extremely unlikely that PAS will let them, considering the strong, near-invincible position they have in the PN coalition.
That is the reality that the 2022 election numbers already show as well the anecdotal accounts of their stranglehold in the Malay heartland and inroads they are making into Malay urban centres all over the country, with some talk of even Selangor falling.
The albatross around PAS’ neck is hasbeen Bersatu. The recent noises that PAS is making show beyond a shadow of a doubt they want to shake it off, making it clear they don’t want 78-year-old Muhyiddin as PM even if they win.
Conciliatory rhetoric
The interesting thing is that PAS’ recent rhetoric looks like it is moving towards assuaging non-Malay non-Muslim apprehension over its rule with its president Abdul Hadi Awang even saying that PAS will take care of minority religions and interests.
While Bersatu needs PAS to win, PAS can win without Bersatu. PAS has stamina for the long term and can count on a strong Malay base of around 30 per cent through thick and thin. In many areas Umno has won previously against PAS only because of non-Malay support.
Although PAS’ support has risen and fallen with the times, the long-term history shows a rising trajectory despite the peaks and falls still evident as Umno’s power is whittled down by others such as PKR and Bersatu, undermining its previous dominance.
In the 1955 elections for the 52-seat Federal Legislative Council preceding Malayan independence in 1957 and Parliament, only one party stood up to the relentless onslaught of the Alliance juggernaut of Umno, MCA and MIC, the multi-racial coalition spearheading the independence movement.
That party was PAS which is now Parti Se-Islam Malaysia, an offshoot of a short-lived Islamic fundamentalist movement in 1948 called Hizbul Muslimin. The emergency the same year saw the movement outlawed and the formation of the then Persatuan Islam Sa-Malaya.
Only party to challenge Alliance
Not only did it challenge the absolute parliamentary supremacy of Alliance in the 1955 elections, where it contested as the Pan-Malayan Islamic Party, in subsequent elections it managed to rule periodically in two states, Kelantan and Teregganu, the only power to challenge the Alliance seriously in the early years of independence.
Pundits predicted its demise during the halcyon days the late 70s and 80s of rapid growth and rising affluence, but PAS stood steadfast in the belief that it is in the game for the long term, slowly and relentlessly building its base in the Malay heartland states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Perlis and Kedah where it reigns supreme now.
As religious zeal spread like wild fire through the Malay masses from a new brand of clerics returning from the 1970s onwards from overseas centres with new more fundamental ideas and funding from Saudi Arabia, PAS rose again.
More recently, under the moderate PAS president Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, a loose coalition was cobbled between Anwar Ibrahim’s PKR, DAP and PAS and called Pakatan Rakyat after the 2008 elections. This took on a weakened BN in 2013 with encouraging results, winning the popular vote although losing the elections
Five years earlier in 2008, BN had suffered a setback at the polls under Abdullah Ahmad Badawi who had a landslide victory in 2004 with 92 per cent of Parliamentary seats. Abdullah resigned in 2009 for Najib Razak.
However, PAS suffered a setback when Nik Aziz died in February 2015. The new president Abdul Hadi Awang was known as an ultra and demonstrated it by advocating hudud or Islamic law for Muslims, leading to DAP pulling out of Pakatan Rakyat, leading to its demise.
Najib Razak’s Barisan Nasional, due to the corruption scandals lost the 2018 elections, BN’s first loss, despite PAS remaining outside the coalition. Harapan took 113 seats which together with Warisan’s eight, gave it a decisive total of 121 seats. PAS still got 18 seats despite the swing to Harapan.
Growing corruption an issue
The result was largely a reflection of the growing corruption in the country, exemplified by an estimated over RM40 billion losses from state development company 1Malaysia Development Bhd, the infamous 1MDB, much of it theft of huge bond proceeds. Najib is in jail as a result.
The Harapan coalition was Malaysia’s great hope for multi-racial politics and a new beginning for the country with hope that true development with eradication of corruption will lead to a new era of greater prosperity for all.
But Mahathir Mohamad, whose Bersatu, co-founded with Muhyiddin, was part of the coalition and was designated interim prime minister until Anwar Ibrahim, to be released from prison, could take over. But Mahathir did not want Anwar.
The Harapan government collapsed as some Malays defected. First Muhyiddin was president and then Ismail Sabri. Then came the 2022 elections and a hung parliament. Harapan had the most seats and was asked to form the government which it did when it allied with Umno and GPS of Sarawak.
For the first time ever, PAS became the single largest party, not coalition, in terms of number of parliamentary seats with 43. DAP was the unlikely second largest with 40, PKR a distant third with 31 tying with Bersatu, then came Umno with 26.
Mighty Umno with only 26 seats, down from 54 seats in 2018 already down from 88 seats in 2013. The party proved to be the lowest pull among Malay voters, reflecting the rejection of Umno by most Malays. The move to pardon Najib by Umno did not cut it with Malay voters.
The only party that can claim major support among Malay voters is clearly PAS, which most likely carried ally Bersatu to victory in most of its 31 seats through the alliance Perikatan Nasional.
Ironically, PAS is now reaching out to the non-Malays while still holding steadfast to its Islamic credentials. Nothing shows this more than Hadi’s recent comment: “PAS is prepared to lead Malaysia with its pluralistic society, upholding the sanctity of the Federal Constitution with the true interpretation of Islam (Ad-Deen), without neglecting the rights and interests of other communities.”
“Islam obliges those in power to act justly towards all. Islam permits adherents of other faiths to practise what is permitted by their religions, within the boundaries of safeguarding the sensitivities of Muslims, and Islam commands its followers to respect the sensitivities of non-Muslims,” Hadi added.
That is reaching out to all communities and expressing a desire to protect their interests. Paradoxically, the Madani government, where Umno seems to have more influence than PKR and DAP combined, seems to be moving in the opposite direction, unleashing Umno Youth’s undiplomatically blunt leader on non-Malays frequently.
An age limit of 70
And Abdul Hadi is clear that he no longer wants Muhyiddin to lead when he said leaders over 70 should not.
“The Quran said when choosing a leader, (the person) must be knowledgeable, has integrity, and be healthy. People like me are no longer eligible. Firstly, a leader must be healthy, below the age of 70,” he said.
We all know why these things are being openly talked about – there is no confidence that the Madani government will win handily in the next elections and therefore a coalition is still the alternative. It would be different if PAS was in Madani but that seems out for now although it could change.
There is no time like now when there is little confidence in others such as PKR and Umno for PAS to become bolder. PAS is now better placed than ever before and more than any other single party in shaping the new government post GE16, whether some of us welcome it or not.
P Gunasegaram says one needs to be there and leap to ensure that he does not miss the boat.
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