By P. Gunasegaram
Despite what leaders of the Madani government say about how voter support for the Madani government increased in the Ayer Kuning by elections, a dissection of the numbers and comparing like with like show a substantial decline in voter support.
While there was effectively a 3-way battle in the 2022 elections for the Ayer Kuning state seat- BN, Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) – this time there were two main contenders – BN and PN. BN and PH joined hands post the 2022 polls.
By looking at the support that could have been at the 2022 polls for the Madani government had it been formed then, and comparing with how it did now, there is a substantial drop in support.
The table summarises the results of the 2022 and 2025 elections for Ayer Kuning. At first glance, it looks like the results were great, the majority has more than doubled in absolute terms to 5006 from 2213 or 27.3 percent of total votes cast against a mere 9.4 per cent previously. Great, right? Wrong!
The difference is that PH and BN were on separate sides in 2022. Therefore combining both their votes in 2022 and comparing is the right way to determine whether this has fully translated into a combined voting power post the alliance between the two.
The clear result is that the Madani combination has not achieved its full potential and has seen a considerable decline in voter support. The line to look at in the table is the one highlighted. This adjusts the 2022 figures to include PH’s votes before comparing.
In absolute terms the majority declined nearly 4,000 votes from 9151 to 5006, an over 45% drop in the majority, instead of the doubling that unadjusted figures show from 2213 to 5006.
In terms of the majority as a percentage of votes cast, the adjusted figures show a decline from 39.0 per cent to 27.4 per cent, which is a huge difference compared with unadjusted figures which show an increase from 9.4 per cent of votes cast to 27.3 per cent.
BN/PH accounted for 68% of votes cast in 2022, declining to 60.6% in the recent election, a decline of over seven percentage points in voter support. The combined voter support for BN/PH has actually declined – not as the leaders implied, increased – even after taking into account low voter turnout.
When BN/Umno chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi claimed that the Ayer Kuning win was a manifestation of the people’s support for the Madani government, that was quite far from the truth – the whole was less than the sum of the parts. Why?
The most likely answer is that the non-Malays who would have supported PH – and hence BN in this case – did not come out in large numbers to vote, as reflected by the overall poor turnout. That may be due to apathy combined with dissatisfaction over government policy.
The Ayer Kuning seat has an electorate which is 57 per cent Malay, 21 Chinese, 14.2 Indian and 6.6 Orang Asli. It is easily winnable for the Madani government for strong non-Malay support will carry a candidate through with moderate or even low Malay support.
But if non-Malay apathy increases towards the government, then there is potential trouble especially in more borderline areas. A greater shift towards Malay interests at the expense of non-Malay interests is likely to exacerbate the situation.
The recent strong action against the Sin Chew Daily newspaper resulting in the suspension of two top editors over the wrong display of the national flag to appease hardline groups is one example.
Contrast this with the lackadaisical approach when dealing with the education ministry which made a similar “serious” error, as pointed out here. Which deserves greater punishment? Will Chinese voters be energised to support Madani?
The other example is the case of an old Hindu temple in Kuala Lumpur which is being relocated for a mosque to be built in its place. The temple authorities had been trying to regularise the over 100-year-old temple with City Hall, to no avail as explained here. The impact on Indian voters is predictable.
While the Madani government’s shift towards Malay interests may help Umno, it deviates from PKR’s more inclusive and multi-racial inclinations, so eloquently expressed in the past by PM Anwar Ibrahim.
It’s still on his linkedin page: “Anak Melayu adalah anak saya. Anak Cina adalah anak saya. Anak India adalah anak saya. Anak Iban atau anak Kadazan: mereka semua anak saya.”
Not many non-Malays believe that anymore, feeling betrayed by his changed stance. As Madani is equated with Anwar, this may cost in key swing constituencies, not only PKR’s but including some of Umno’s and BN’s.
There is strong evidence that this is already happening in the just concluded polls. To ignore it and the power that solid non-Malay backing gives PKR is to court disaster, not just for PKR but for Umno/BN, paving the way for PAS/PN to launch a formidable challenge to the Madani government at the next polls barely two years from now.
Unless, of course, if the political equation changes by then as it has so often since that pivotal elections of 2018.
P Gunasegaram is a former editor and head of equity research.
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