By Lawrence Yong
In our issue for this week, KiniBiz compares and contrasts the manifestos of Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat ahead of the May 5 elections, examining the merits and demerits. In the first article we identify one common denominator in both – substantial spending, leading observers to conclude they are uniformly driven by the need to get votes. BN insists there is no need for a drastic change, all you need is to fine-tune a well-running, proven machine. Pakatan insists just as strongly that Malaysia can’t progress without substantial change. They both can’t be right.
It is and it is not a numbers game. If manifestos are judged by the amount of promises made, then incumbent 13-party coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) has an upper hand at the 13th General Election. BN’s manifesto has 17 broad thrusts compared to the three-party Pakatan’s only four broad thrusts. BN has ruled Malaysia for 55 years while Pakatan has ruled up to 4 states for five years.
On first impression, both manifestos seem like wide-ranging populist attempts to buy as many votes as possible. Both are easily dismissed as political ploys.
“I don’t think there are a lot of governing details in both the manifestos. People shouldn’t vote based on populist policies because these are short run fixes,” Hafiz Noor Shams, a research fellow from the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) said.
Hafiz, like many others, are rightly wondering if both manifestos would burn a big hole in government pockets if put into practise.
But that’s not all the manifestos offer, really. A closer read reveals that the two documents are written from very different governing principles, offering two almost contrasting ways of doing “Malaysian” business.
At stake is power over a federal budget of some RM230 billion a year, power to direct the country’s RM488 billion of oil assets and Southeast Asia’s third biggest economy. Malaysia also boasts natural forests, a tourism hotspot, oil palm plantations, an educated population and the 25th most competitive economy in the world.
After 55 years in power, one could argue that BN is a victim of its own success. A burgeoning middle class vote which is more demanding, never satisfied. We are no more talking about bread and butter issues. We are talking bigger houses, bigger cars and better jobs.
On all three fronts, BN boldly promises more. It offers 3.3 million jobs, 20-30 percent lower car prices and 500,000 houses for the poor at 20 percent below market prices. Pakatan had one million jobs, abolishing a car excise tax which currently adds 75-115 percent to the price of a car in Malaysia, and 150,000 low and medium cost houses.
Arguably, it’s not fair. BN’s manifesto came out more than a month later than Pakatan. Surely, it had to have bigger headline numbers.
Both are giving away money. BN is going to double its cash handouts to the poor, almost RM7 billion by some estimates. Pakatan is going to lower petrol, electricity, and water bills, offer free tertiary education and abolish highway tolls and handout money to the marginalised – from single mothers to indigenous Orang Asli and retired soldiers.
That’s just the sweeteners… the interesting parts are the economic engines.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak wants to continue his Economic Tranformation Program (ETP), a plan to attract RM1.3 trillion investments to fast-track the country to developed status by 2020, a vision first mooted in 1991 by Malaysia’s longest serving prime minister Mahathir Mohammad. Big infrastructure construction jobs, oil, gas and petrochemical investments and world class education are part of the deal.
Najib is throwing around billion dollar figures as if it is spare change for Malaysia. Even after dissolution of parliament, the caretaker prime minister announced that three Putrajaya projects which involved RM8 billion of funds.
Pakatan’s manifesto does not spell out what it would do about Najib’s ETP but in their campaigns, Pakatan leaders have often cited that all contracts which handed out extraordinary profits in order to draw in the investments – highway contracts, oil service contracts, logging contracts and independent power purchase contracts – this would be reviewed … even if it involved politically-connected individuals.
Pakatan’s stated aim is simply make the government accountable, transparent and cost-effective. To this end, Pakatan promises to be pro small and medium-sized enterprises or SMEs, an often overlooked sector. SMEs contributes 32 per cent to Gross Domestic Products, 56.4 per cent to total work force and 19 per cent to total exports, according to Malaysia’s trade and industry ministry (Miti). Pakatan aims to raise research and development funding to 5 percent of GDP and support SME’s innovative ideas.
Big projects – even if they will bring in billions of dollars of investments – Lynas, 1MDB and Rapid for example – may be simply scrapped, Pakatan said.
Pakatan said it wants equal development. To fight lopsided investments which have seen the west coast of peninsular Malaysia and Federal-controlled Kuala Lumpur develop much more rapidly than the east coast and Sabah and Sarawak, Pakatan promises to raise oil royalty for Sabah, Sarawak, Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang to 20 percent from the current 5 percent.
Both manifestos touch on corruption and law enforcement, a big stumbling block to doing business in Malaysia.
In a recent Transparency International survey on bribery, Malaysia topped the list of 30 countries. Over 3000 executives were asked whether they had lost a contract in the past year from competitors paying bribes, and 50 percent of Malaysians said yes. It was ahead of India and Indonesia.
BN thinks that it is a result of understaffing. It said it would let the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) choose its own staff and raise police personnel by 4,000 a year and add 50,000 police volunteer reserves and more courts to charge corruption cases.
Pakatan thinks it is a lack of independence. Pakatan said they would give the MACC power to prosecute and detach police from political control by bolstering the Crime Investigation Department (CID) and refocus attention on chasing big corruption cases.
And these are just a few key differences. Reading the manifesto has never been more important for anyone who truly cares about democracy in Malaysia and wishes to vote wisely. Neither answers all policy questions, nor can manifestos be expected to.
The 13th general elections is going to be an election unlike any in the history of Malaysia’s elections. For the first time, comes a credible challenger to dislodge BN from power, even if most so-called experts give Pakatan the slimmest of chances. This is the first time BN has to publish a manifesto to counter the opposition and they took more than a month to respond.
Why the delay?
Last month, former deputy Prime Minister Musa Hitam was reported saying it was not fair to assume that the country will go bankrupt if Pakatan Rakyat takes the federal government in the 13th general election. Musa sought to reduce the gravity of his words later when the senior statesman realised his statement was being used by Pakatan.
Having lived under BN rule for most of their lives, most Malaysians, would not be able to imagine what an ‘alternative’ government looks like nor have it suggested to them from a BN veteran.
To its credit, the Pakatan’s manifesto is a brave, thoughtful attempt to fill this gap of reimagining Malaysia. It ends with a letter written by a Malaysian, 10 years in the future … in 2023. Economists and academics had applauded the “people’s manifesto” when it was first released last month. They told KiniBiz it was a thoughtful and insightful document, flaws aside.
Seen in this light, BN’s manifesto, in contrast, is a strangely defensive statement … not only does it spell out what it’s going to offer in next five years, it also devotes as much space to stating what it did in the past. The onus is on Najib, who has never faced the voters as the country’s head, to show it has done its job well in managing Malaysia. Najib came to power in 2009, when Abdullah Badawi stepped down even after winning the last elections for BN.
BN’s manifesto has Najib’s face plastered all over it, including even a personal visit to Mecca for the Haj for added credibility. His “1Malaysia” brand is ubiquitously quoted.
Has BN, under Najib, fulfilled its promises as its manifesto says it?
“I have read this all before in the government plans …NEM, GTP, ETP … four years ago and don’t see anything new to be excited about,” University Malaya’s political economist Terence Gomez said. “The problems still exists. How far has Najib come and where is he going to take us?”
On May 5, if democracy works as it is supposed to – one man one vote – the voters will finally have a real choice. A choice to choose between two teams with fairly different ideas.
Both Pakatan and BN made it clear that they want to drive Malaysia forward. It is round two of a crucial fight which started in 2008 when the opposition denied BN two thirds majority in parliament. For ageing opposition leaders Anwar Ibrahim, Lim Kit Siang and Hadi Awang who have been at the sidelines, taking punches at the government for decades, this may be their final attempt at seizing control of the state apparatus.
BN says Malaysia is a runaway success. It just needs cosmetic surgery, a shot of adrenalin – the body is generally sound. Maybe some implants would help but don’t rock the boat.
In contrast, Pakatan is saying Malaysia is in bad shape. It needs reform, a new way of doing business, a total makeover or watch as the ship sinks.
They both can’t be right.
Tomorrow: A closer look at how manifestos address cost of living issues
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