By P. Gunasegaram
As the unexpected surprise contest between Rafizi Ramli and Nurul Izzah Anwar for the number two position in PKR tumbles into an anti-climax with everyone, including Rafizi, expecting Rafizi to lose, the question is what really happened.
No matter who wins, and going by delegate support it looks like it will be Nurul, it seems unlikely that the party will be split badly. Both candidates seem to have no acrimony towards each other and Rafizi’s angst is clearly speared against Nurul’s father PMX Anwar Ibrahim, not Nurul.
Both candidates have clearly indicated that whoever wins they are prepared to be supportive of the other and close ranks.
But the puzzle is what happened to suddenly cause such a swing against the Rafizi block in the earlier elections last month for delegates.
For possible answers one has to rewind to last year, what might have happened there and whether there was any impropriety at the very least that took place to change the character of PKR members who voted for the delegates.
Membership patterns matter
Unless there is enough information on how membership patterns changed, much of the analysis at this stage has to be conjecture as to how some things could have happened to alter the balance of power within PKR.
While PKR has refuted Rafizi’s allegations of election irregularities it is entirely possible that new members could have been pushed into many divisions to alter the balance of voting power. That would not break the rules but may not be considered fair.
The deadline to enable new members to vote in the current elections was mid-December, barely five months ago, With membership fees of a mere RM2 a year and little background checking, it would have been easy to inflate figures by a few hundred thousand for less than a million ringgit, small change these days.
That makes a huge difference because the total number of PKR members is said to be about a million.
True, that’s difficult to prove but looking at membership figures and establishing whether there was a sudden increase could indicate whether this happened. The other telling indication although it may not be evidence is the poor showing of Rafizi supporters at the polls for delegates.
That is likely the crux of Rafizi’s complaints and the reason for the ruckus he kicked up. If indeed Anwar’s supporters had done this – some had alleged some new members were still members of other political parties – that’s not very friendly and smacks of quick and easy return to money politics for PKR.
It is obvious enough, although not very public that Anwar, who was returned unopposed as president did not have a great relationship with Rafizi and may have even considered him a threat to his position, favouring Saifuddin Nasution Ismail.
Rafizi beat Saifuddin soundly in the last PKR polls in May 2022, only to see himself sidelined in the relatively toothless position of Economy Minister where he largely proposes but someone else disposes.
Saifuddin on the other hand was made a senator and parachuted into the second most powerful position in the cabinet as Home Minister, where he held on to Umno concepts of strong central control of media and a reluctance to roll back oppressive laws. He was reappointed secretary general of PKR despite his loss.
Anwar’s lack of endorsement of Rafizi as his replacement in PKR – for instance not naming him as a deputy prime minister – left wide open the question of who would become PM if anything should happen to Anwar.
It began to look like Ahmad Zahid Zahidi may be the chosen successor under those conditions. This did not go down too well with large sections within PKR, especially given Anwar’s excessive pandering to Umno’s wants and his previous close relationship with Ahmad Zahid.
Changing membership profile
It was thought that to prevent a possible challenge by Rafizi against Anwar for the top position at PKR, Anwar supporters within and without PKR may have considered it prudent to change the balance of power through new members in PKR. They had some two years to do it if indeed they had.
These are permitted under current rules but Rafizi has alleged it goes beyond this. Thus were sown the seeds of suspicion. When the results of elections of delegates became public, and amidst allegations of election irregularities, the PKR top brass met.
Meanwhile, Nurul announced her intention to run for deputy president on May 9, and Saifuddin announced his withdrawal after talking to top leaders.
When nominations closed, Anwar was returned unopposed as president. Nurul Izzah and Rafizi were the unlikely contestants for the number two position with Saifuddin’s withdrawal.
Perhaps the Rafizi camp achieved partial victory with Saifuddin out of the way. But why did Nurul offer herself the number two position, knowing full well that doing so would invite charges of nepotism?
Does it mean she supports her father completely? Not necessarily. She has already criticised the extension of MACC chief commissioner Azam Baki’s term for a third time by her father.
Some in PKR say that Nurul put her candidacy in to prevent an unwanted person from becoming deputy president – that’s not likely to be Rafizi, which leaves who else but Saifuddin.
If Rafizi is out, so is Saifuddin. And if Rafizi works with Nurul if she wins, all is likely to be alright. Right now, it doesn’t matter who – Rafizi or Nurul – wins. The damage is done – PKR is ailing badly.
When such shenanigans come up, something is not right – it means undesirable – even if not illegal matters right away are taking place to engineer people in and out of positions of power, a patently Umno disease now threatening PKR.
In no small way, Rafizi’s position in PKR is being undermined in large part because he is straight and will not play the game that others do.
His Padu database was heavily criticised but it was aimed at cutting wastage because those who were not entitled to subsidies may be getting them because of insufficient information. He was trying to get that information.
Similarly, there were criticisms against the e-invoicing system which basically sought to reduce tax evasion but powerful people were against it. Not just those within PKR but in other parties did not like Rafizi because he was honest, sometimes brutally so.
But the ultimate mistake is Anwar’s. Rafizi as finance minister and a clear number two to Anwar would have done much for PKR and the country, reflecting the will of PKR members. But instead he sidelined him in favour of his Umno friends. PKR will suffer for it and see its influence rapidly diminish.
Perhaps Rafizi should have gone for the top post instead and challenged Anwar for party president. Even if he had lost, he would have said and done something.
P Gunasegaram laments that Umno-style politics has infiltrated PKR.
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