Asians worry about potential war with China

By Khairie Hisyam

Many Asians, including most Malaysians, are worrying about a potential war breaking out as tensions between Beijing and its neighbours rise, according to a United States-based think tank.

In a report released on Monday, Washington, D.C.-based Pew Research Center noted that based on its 11-nation survey, at least half or more respondents think territorial disputes with China may escalate into military conflict.

“This includes a remarkably high 93% of Filipinos, 85% of Japanese, 84% of Vietnamese, and 83% of South Koreans,” said the report.

As for Malaysians, 66% think so too, while another 19% are not concerned. The remaining 15% either did not know or refused to comment.

Notably Malaysians, along with Pakistanis and Chinese, are the only Asians to name the US as their respective nation’s biggest threat. Meanwhile both Malaysians and Pakistanis consider China to be their respective country’s biggest ally.

“When Asians are asked about their top allies and threats, China is listed as the greatest threat in three countries that have major territorial grievances with China: Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam,” said Pew’s report. “Outside of China, Malaysia and Pakistan, every Asian nation surveyed considers the US its top ally (Indonesians actually see the U.S. as their main ally and their main threat).”

Established in 2004, the Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts.

‘Don’t undermine peace’

The finding comes as Southeast Asian foreign ministers, in May, called for restraint amid rising territorial tensions in the South China Sea.

Bloomberg reported that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, on May 10, expressed concern over escalating tensions and called for all parties, including China, to show self-restraint.

The statement by the association, made after a meeting in Myanmar, urged nations staking claims on resource-rich regions of the South China Sea to “avoid actions which could undermine peace and stability in the area,” and “resolve disputes by peaceful means without resorting to threat or use of force”.

Prior to that meeting, in early May China deployed a deepwater drilling rig in waters contested by both the republic and Vietnam.

This heightened tensions between the two nations, leading to a series of anti-China protests in Vietnam that eventually led to multiple deaths, including a woman who immolated herself in front of the Independence Palace in Ho Chi Minh city.

The New York Times reported today that the oil rig, having completed its exploration work, would be moved to uncontested waters closer to Hainan Island, a southern province of China.

Territorial disputes galore

However, the incident with Vietnam was but one of many ongoing territorial disputes between China and other nations in the Asia Pacific region.

News service Reuters reported that China’s on-going disputes include those with the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia, who all have territorial claims across a waterway in which half the world’s shipping tonnage sail.

As for Malaysia, the territorial disputes with China covers the maritime boundary north of Borneo Island, on which the states of Sabah and Sarawak are located, as well as islands in the southern region of the South China Seas including the Spratly Islands.

In addition China’s nine-dotted line — more commonly referred to as its nine-dash line — covers most of the South China Sea in a looping shape and overlaps with Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) claims.

An EEZ is a sea zone whereby a nation has special rights over the exploration and use of marine resources, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Although in general a country’s EEZ extends to 370km from its coastline, in cases of overlap it would be up to the countries involved to determine the actual maritime boundary, according to the UN convention.

However any point within overlapping areas would generally default to the nearest country, according to the UN convention.

In turn, China’s nine-dash line loops in a U-shape across most of the South China Sea, coming close to the shorelines of Sabah, Sarawak and Brunei and encompassing 90% of the sea’s 3.5 million sq km area.

Najib: Don’t jeopardise ties with Beijing

Last May prime minister Najib Abdul Razak said the territorial disputes should not impede Malaysia’s growing ties with China, the former’s biggest trade partner with more than US$100 billion in two-way trade volume last year.

According to news reports, Najib commented to Japanese daily Nikkei that relations with China must not be defined on a single-issue basis, rather by looking at “the broad spectrum of the relations and recognise the strategic importance of our bilateral relationship with China”.

Najib was speaking during a visit to Japan, during which he held talks with Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe. “We… reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea,” Najib reportedly said at a joint news conference afterwards.

These comments came months after China held a naval exercise around the disputed James Shoal, some 80km off Sarawak’s coast, in January this year, the republic’s second such exercise in the area in a year.

Following the incident, Malaysia had quietly intensified efforts with the Philippines and Vietnam to try and tie China to binding rules of conduct in the South China Sea, reported Reuters quoting senior diplomats.

China-Malaysia ties began in 1974 when Najib’s father, Abdul Razak Hussein, was prime minister.

In 2011, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said he does not think China is a threat either to Southeast Asian nations or the world, according to an interview with Japan’s The Asahi Shimbun.

A growing superpower

China’s assertiveness in its territorial claims in the Asia Pacific region grows as perceptions shift over its place in the world’s balance of power, according to the Pew Research Center’ssurvey.

Comparing results from surveys did in 2008 and 2014, the think tank’s report found that 31% of respondents think China is the world’s leading economy in 2014 compared to 19% in 2008.

In addition 50% feel China will or has replaced the US as the world’s superpower in 2014 compared to 41% in 2008.

In March Beijing announced a 12% increase in its military budget to modernise its military as well as enhance the defense of its land, coastal and air boundaries, according to a Bloomberg report.

Already the world’s second largest military power, China’s budget increase came as the US proposed a budget cut for its defense spending in 2015, though in the larger picture the US’ 2015 budget is still triple that of China’s in 2014.

Notably US respondents in the Pew Research Center’s poll see Russia, not China, as their nation’s biggest threat.

In Malaysia, critics of the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement that Putrajaya is negotiating with 11 other nations including the US have argued that the agreement is a geo-political effort by the US to counter China’s emerging influence in the region.

However officials from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Miti) have said to KiniBiz that China, notably excluded from the talks, is internally studying whether it should join the agreement.

“The TPP is a step to FTAs (free trade agreements) for Asia Pacific, so whoever is a member of APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) can opt in,” said Miti secretary-general Rebecca Sta Maria to KiniBiz last year.

KiniBiz previously examined the TPP issue in a four-part series here.